Users or fans?

[worker201]

http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/25/77-of-iphone-4-sales-were-upgrades/?section=magazines_fortune

77% of iPhone 4G sales were upgrades by previous iPhone owners.  Doesn't seem like a very stable market.

[Lead Head]

Yikes, that is quite a  large percentage. It could (and probably is) working for them though, like constant repeat customers for a restaurant. Solid business that you don't really  have to worry about going away.

[piratePenguin]

related: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/24/what-the-iphone-means-to-apple/

[worker201]

It seems pretty obvious where their business is headed.  I think devices like the iPad are the future of consumer computing - not just because they're cheap and useful devices that can be greatly extended with web services, but also because the platform and the development environment can be controlled.  And a controlled environment is usually a safer and more reliable environment.  The lack of freedom that Linux users will bristle against will hardly be noticed, because the devices are so goddamn cool.

[piratePenguin]

related: http://battellemedia.com/archives/2010/06/steve_jobs_at_d_a_master.php

Btw, you're utterly correct. Devices LIKE the iPad, the iPhone are the future of consumer computing. Nothing else to say.

[Aloone_Jonez]

Btw, you're utterly correct. Devices LIKE the iPad, the iPhone are the future of consumer computing. Nothing else to say.

I hope not.

I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC. I don't see what all the fuss is about. There again, I admit I've never used one properly so maybe I'm not giving it a chance.

[Refalm]

For me, it's that I can check on my smartphone where the fuck I am, search on the internet where I can find a decent Indonesian restaurant when I'm walking about in some town I never heard of, looking for directions on how to quickly get somewhere with public transportation, or being able to watch a movie anywhere when I'm utterly bored.
Those are the few reasons for me.

[piratePenguin]

Btw, you're utterly correct. Devices LIKE the iPad, the iPhone are the future of consumer computing. Nothing else to say.

I hope not.

I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC. I don't see what all the fuss is about. There again, I admit I've never used one properly so maybe I'm not giving it a chance.

Yeah, I meant to change my post entirely but I didn't bother. In the post I made, my main point is that imo, Apple will be lucky to be doing just well when the world enters the battlefield.

I don't like the ipad so much (I think it will be successful for a while, but useless to people such as me. In fact it is because apple aren't targeting people like me, you Aloone, that the ipad is/will be successful), a lot of people I've asked don't like it so much, but you still always hear about the people who are actually in love with it.

These devices won't change the desktop/laptop markets much in the foreseeable future - people still need them when doing work becomes important.

[worker201]

I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC.

People probably used to feel the same way about keyboards and mice - they're so clunky compared to punch cards.  And yet they got over it.

I really don't think desktops and laptops are really a part of the future - in the same way that tubes and transistors aren't part of our present.  I envision something like the timeshare machines of the past.  Except the terminals are WAP-enabled devices with a minimum of tactile interfaces, and the mainframe is a data server so fast you don't even realize you're sharing.  Even heavy processes, like rendering and decryption, which have traditionally required lots of processor cycles, can be accomplished remotely.

[Lead Head]

I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC.

People probably used to feel the same way about keyboards and mice - they're so clunky compared to punch cards.  And yet they got over it.

I really don't think desktops and laptops are really a part of the future - in the same way that tubes and transistors aren't part of our present.  I envision something like the timeshare machines of the past.  Except the terminals are WAP-enabled devices with a minimum of tactile interfaces, and the mainframe is a data server so fast you don't even realize you're sharing.  Even heavy processes, like rendering and decryption, which have traditionally required lots of processor cycles, can be accomplished remotely.

Transistors aren't part of our present?

Anyways, I agree that is probably where we are going. I don't think we're going to tiny screen devices, the current trend right now is actually trying to get HD video onto portable devices with bigger and sharper screens. HTC Evo, iPad, etc..

I don't agree about tactile feedback though. Trying to type with any kind of speed or accuracy on a touchscreen is a nightmare. I "downgraded" from a nice ergonomic keyboard to a clunky 1992 IBM Model M keyboard that has buckling spring key switches - and my typing speed and accuracy improved hugely. Using modern rubber dome keyboards is actually frustrating now.

So they're going to have to come up with some kind of tactile feedback IMO, whether it be buttons under the screen or some kind of piezoelectric device that makes each touch screen press feel like you're pushing a button (which is in play on some devices actually)

[Aloone_Jonez]

Transistors still exist and are still available as discrete parts which have many applications in modern devices.

The trend for desktops is larger screens which is incompatible with being portable - I'm not going to ditch my wide screen 1920x1080 19" for a tiny portable, even if it does have the same resolution.

Touch screen technology has been around for years but it's only caught on in portable devices. I believe Lead Head is right about tactile feedback, for example most keyboards have a flexible PCB with membrane switches underneath the clunky keys, which are there for no other reason than tactile feedback.

The trend has been to move further away from remote processing - mainframes and server-side scripting have been replaced with workstations and client-side scripting in recent years. Why do you think this trend will not continue?

From a personal perspective, I've no use for an iPad or anything like that now, although I can see the advantages of being able to check emails, post on a forum, use Google watch videos etc. on the move, it's just not worth the money as far as I'm concerned and I'd rather do all of the aforementioned from a big comfy seat using a proper keyboard and a mouse.

[worker201]

I don't agree about tactile feedback though. Trying to type with any kind of speed or accuracy on a touchscreen is a nightmare. I "downgraded" from a nice ergonomic keyboard to a clunky 1992 IBM Model M keyboard that has buckling spring key switches - and my typing speed and accuracy improved hugely. Using modern rubber dome keyboards is actually frustrating now.

So they're going to have to come up with some kind of tactile feedback IMO, whether it be buttons under the screen or some kind of piezoelectric device that makes each touch screen press feel like you're pushing a button (which is in play on some devices actually)

Interesting that you think typing is the way of the future.

I don't know what the future is going to bring.  But I do know that:
a) things that are cute and unique and highly functional and widely extendable are profitable
b) wireless communication, both hi-speed (data) and low-speed (voice), is now ubiquitous and reliable
c) most of the day to day things that people do on computers can be done using web apps and network storage
d) most computer users cannot be trusted to check their own Outlook email without crashing a whole network

A wireless device, which is tightly regulated and remotely administered, is the future, at least for low-level office workers and students.  Maybe like a netbook, but a touch device might also be useful for many apps.

[Aloone_Jonez]

I think it's more likely that portable devices, such as the iPad, will just replace mobile phones and electronic organisers which is what they're intended to do. I don't see why anyone would stop using their laptop or desktop because they have an iPad unless they're continuously on the move and have to travel light.

[worker201]

Yeah, you're probably right.  The fact that you really like keyboards and can't think of a reason to get a smartphone means desktop sales will triple over the next few years.

[Refalm]

A solution to the problem of tiny keys on smartphones or netbooks.
I'm sure people can think of more and better solution in brainstorm sessions with the aid of psychotropics.