Stop Microsoft
Operating Systems => macOS => Topic started by: worker201 on 29 June 2010, 06:28
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http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/25/77-of-iphone-4-sales-were-upgrades/?section=magazines_fortune (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/25/77-of-iphone-4-sales-were-upgrades/?section=magazines_fortune)
77% of iPhone 4G sales were upgrades by previous iPhone owners. Doesn't seem like a very stable market.
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Yikes, that is quite a large percentage. It could (and probably is) working for them though, like constant repeat customers for a restaurant. Solid business that you don't really have to worry about going away.
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related: http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/24/what-the-iphone-means-to-apple/ (http://tech.fortune.cnn.com/2010/06/24/what-the-iphone-means-to-apple/)
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It seems pretty obvious where their business is headed. I think devices like the iPad are the future of consumer computing - not just because they're cheap and useful devices that can be greatly extended with web services, but also because the platform and the development environment can be controlled. And a controlled environment is usually a safer and more reliable environment. The lack of freedom that Linux users will bristle against will hardly be noticed, because the devices are so goddamn cool.
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related: http://battellemedia.com/archives/2010/06/steve_jobs_at_d_a_master.php (http://battellemedia.com/archives/2010/06/steve_jobs_at_d_a_master.php)
Btw, you're utterly correct. Devices LIKE the iPad, the iPhone are the future of consumer computing. Nothing else to say.
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Btw, you're utterly correct. Devices LIKE the iPad, the iPhone are the future of consumer computing. Nothing else to say.
I hope not.
I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC. I don't see what all the fuss is about. There again, I admit I've never used one properly so maybe I'm not giving it a chance.
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For me, it's that I can check on my smartphone where the fuck I am, search on the internet where I can find a decent Indonesian restaurant when I'm walking about in some town I never heard of, looking for directions on how to quickly get somewhere with public transportation, or being able to watch a movie anywhere when I'm utterly bored.
Those are the few reasons for me.
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Btw, you're utterly correct. Devices LIKE the iPad, the iPhone are the future of consumer computing. Nothing else to say.
I hope not.
I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC. I don't see what all the fuss is about. There again, I admit I've never used one properly so maybe I'm not giving it a chance.
Yeah, I meant to change my post entirely but I didn't bother. In the post I made, my main point is that imo, Apple will be lucky to be doing just well when the world enters the battlefield.
I don't like the ipad so much (I think it will be successful for a while, but useless to people such as me. In fact it is because apple aren't targeting people like me, you Aloone, that the ipad is/will be successful), a lot of people I've asked don't like it so much, but you still always hear about the people who are actually in love with it.
These devices won't change the desktop/laptop markets much in the foreseeable future - people still need them when doing work becomes important.
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I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC.
People probably used to feel the same way about keyboards and mice - they're so clunky compared to punch cards. And yet they got over it.
I really don't think desktops and laptops are really a part of the future - in the same way that tubes and transistors aren't part of our present. I envision something like the timeshare machines of the past. Except the terminals are WAP-enabled devices with a minimum of tactile interfaces, and the mainframe is a data server so fast you don't even realize you're sharing. Even heavy processes, like rendering and decryption, which have traditionally required lots of processor cycles, can be accomplished remotely.
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I don't like touch screens or tiny keyboards and tiny screens, I'd rather use a laptop or a proper PC.
People probably used to feel the same way about keyboards and mice - they're so clunky compared to punch cards. And yet they got over it.
I really don't think desktops and laptops are really a part of the future - in the same way that tubes and transistors aren't part of our present. I envision something like the timeshare machines of the past. Except the terminals are WAP-enabled devices with a minimum of tactile interfaces, and the mainframe is a data server so fast you don't even realize you're sharing. Even heavy processes, like rendering and decryption, which have traditionally required lots of processor cycles, can be accomplished remotely.
Transistors aren't part of our present? :D
Anyways, I agree that is probably where we are going. I don't think we're going to tiny screen devices, the current trend right now is actually trying to get HD video onto portable devices with bigger and sharper screens. HTC Evo, iPad, etc..
I don't agree about tactile feedback though. Trying to type with any kind of speed or accuracy on a touchscreen is a nightmare. I "downgraded" from a nice ergonomic keyboard to a clunky 1992 IBM Model M keyboard that has buckling spring key switches - and my typing speed and accuracy improved hugely. Using modern rubber dome keyboards is actually frustrating now.
So they're going to have to come up with some kind of tactile feedback IMO, whether it be buttons under the screen or some kind of piezoelectric device that makes each touch screen press feel like you're pushing a button (which is in play on some devices actually)
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Transistors still exist and are still available as discrete parts which have many applications in modern devices.
The trend for desktops is larger screens which is incompatible with being portable - I'm not going to ditch my wide screen 1920x1080 19" for a tiny portable, even if it does have the same resolution.
Touch screen technology has been around for years but it's only caught on in portable devices. I believe Lead Head is right about tactile feedback, for example most keyboards have a flexible PCB with membrane switches underneath the clunky keys, which are there for no other reason than tactile feedback.
The trend has been to move further away from remote processing - mainframes and server-side scripting have been replaced with workstations and client-side scripting in recent years. Why do you think this trend will not continue?
From a personal perspective, I've no use for an iPad or anything like that now, although I can see the advantages of being able to check emails, post on a forum, use Google watch videos etc. on the move, it's just not worth the money as far as I'm concerned and I'd rather do all of the aforementioned from a big comfy seat using a proper keyboard and a mouse.
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I don't agree about tactile feedback though. Trying to type with any kind of speed or accuracy on a touchscreen is a nightmare. I "downgraded" from a nice ergonomic keyboard to a clunky 1992 IBM Model M keyboard that has buckling spring key switches - and my typing speed and accuracy improved hugely. Using modern rubber dome keyboards is actually frustrating now.
So they're going to have to come up with some kind of tactile feedback IMO, whether it be buttons under the screen or some kind of piezoelectric device that makes each touch screen press feel like you're pushing a button (which is in play on some devices actually)
Interesting that you think typing is the way of the future.
I don't know what the future is going to bring. But I do know that:
a) things that are cute and unique and highly functional and widely extendable are profitable
b) wireless communication, both hi-speed (data) and low-speed (voice), is now ubiquitous and reliable
c) most of the day to day things that people do on computers can be done using web apps and network storage
d) most computer users cannot be trusted to check their own Outlook email without crashing a whole network
A wireless device, which is tightly regulated and remotely administered, is the future, at least for low-level office workers and students. Maybe like a netbook, but a touch device might also be useful for many apps.
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I think it's more likely that portable devices, such as the iPad, will just replace mobile phones and electronic organisers which is what they're intended to do. I don't see why anyone would stop using their laptop or desktop because they have an iPad unless they're continuously on the move and have to travel light.
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Yeah, you're probably right. The fact that you really like keyboards and can't think of a reason to get a smartphone means desktop sales will triple over the next few years.
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(http://www.industrygab.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/11/laser-keyboard.jpg)
A solution to the problem of tiny keys on smartphones or netbooks.
I'm sure people can think of more and better solution in brainstorm sessions with the aid of psychotropics.
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Looks cool but no tactile feedback..
You can also get roll up rubber keyboards which I don't like.
Worker,
I'm sure sales of smartphones will continue to rise but I just can't see many dropping their desktop for it.
Would you?
Anyway, there's no point in arguing about it when neither of us can be proven right or wrong until the future comes.
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The future is keyboards.
worker, what else do you think will replace them?
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I think voice recognition will become more popular and reliable. I can also envision devices like Wacom tablets that are also touchscreen keyboards and trackpads. I also know plenty of people (most of them children) who can type at amazing speeds using touchscreens, and find keyboards clunky. It might take awhile (10-20 years), but I think the keyboard is ultimately doomed.
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I think voice recognition will become more popular and reliable. I can also envision devices like Wacom tablets that are also touchscreen keyboards and trackpads. I also know plenty of people (most of them children) who can type at amazing speeds using touchscreens, and find keyboards clunky. It might take awhile (10-20 years), but I think the keyboard is ultimately doomed.
Search my buzz for voice recognition, quality read, though it's just one mans opinion and I don't think I'll agree in a few years time - but that is where we are at the moment. While you're at it look at the augmented reality article, it's pretty cool (but more distant-future).
http://www.google.com/profiles/piratepenguin (http://www.google.com/profiles/piratepenguin)
I believe (unlike others) that voice recognition will become pretty good (and it will take a while) - I can see Google being a major innovator here (and not Apple, Apple are marketing smart, Google are far far more book smart) since a) they've entered (Google voice, automatic youtube transcription which currently sucks) and more importantly b) they have youtube videos and a community writing subtitles for audio, and they normally do interesting things with what they've got (so the transcription which sucks, will learn!) - also I can only think it is this way that voice recognition will match, and eventually beat, human accuracy. Google may have a plan to do this soon infact, who knows what they're up to. I do know that the problem of voice recognition will require new techniques, and someone at google is probably smart enough to be onto something.
edit: there is still a lot a lot wrong with the idea of using primarily your voice for computer input - I think a lot of people would never use it in public, and it would probably be bad manners (something like that can change), on top of the reasons in the article I referred to. Possibly the main uses for it are, hands-free operation necessary in cars (where the technology is already there or thereabouts already (if you're setting up a call, not if you're writing a message)) and automatic subtitling.
I could be writing my own voice recognition app before the summers out ^^ (it seems like this isn't a big task) At least, this is super high on the list of things I want to have a very good understanding of.
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I don't care how good voice recognition ever becomes, I can't see it replacing keyboards because it'll never work well in noisy environments and the user won't necessarily want others to hear what they're they're saying.
Tactile feedback isn't the only reason why touch screens are shit, it's poor ergonomics. Sitting at my desktop, I have the keyboard set near my lap so I can look ahead at the screen to see what I'm typing. Using a touch screen, I'd either have to make do with a tiny portable with the keyboard occupying most of the screen or I'd have to have my hands held vertically.
Touch screens are good for replacing the mouse on portables or at kiosks where providing a mouse isn't practical.
They only way to get rid of keyboards is to have some sort of brain scanner which can accurately read the user's mind but in order to catch on it needs to be easy to use, comfortable and not require too much practise to get the hang of.
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I don't care how good voice recognition ever becomes, I can't see it replacing keyboards because it'll never work well in noisy environments and the user won't necessarily want others to hear what they're they're saying.
Lip-reading!!!
I think you've pinned it all down in that post.
There are good alternatives to keyboards in the form of alternate input interfaces for touch devices. There's a cool one I've used (it was free software and I checked it out on my ubuntu), but speed is the issue with many of these interfaces, I imagine if they could compete with the king - that is keyboards, they would be all over the iPhone/Android devices.
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For alternative input methods, see dasher (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ED_w_HMAuP4#ws) (as I recall it was developed for particular devices, people with disabilities, and such applications, it was not designed to be an alternative to a keyboard. Also I used to be able to use dasher fairly quickly (uncomparable to typing still) - this demo is set to a really really slow mode).
It's an interesting idea, but it still isn't a replacement for an on-screen keyboard.
On-screen keyboards are suitable for phones imo, but a device like an ipad should have a (detachable) physical keyboard of sorts. This is certainly the present situation for me, and in the future we'd require something radical to change this. Some out of the box thinking such as dasher.
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That dasher thing seems interesting, but both the guys videos start getting choppy and un-watchable for some reason. Couldn't really see how it was working.
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You can get it in the ubuntu repositories and suse repositories and try it yourself.
Also see http://www.google.ie/search?q=android+dasher (http://www.google.ie/search?q=android+dasher)
I like this, but I really don't think it will be faster than touch typing - on a phone, on a slate like the ipad where typing is SO uncomfortable (it seems; I've no experience with an ipad), however, dasher may be an answer.
There are other alternatives to touch keyboards on the ipad too, in particular I can imagine breaking the keyboard up so that half the keys are on each side of the display beside where you're holding the device, and such that you can reach for every key without needing to leave the ipad ontop of something (probably necessary to rotate the keys, may take a little getting used to).
Hopefully android tablets at least have some options available, since I actually think this (lack of real input) would be a show-stopper for the ipad for me, but it could be solved, and one day I may want a tablet.
edit: heres the best dasher vid I've seen: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-WLiY2p1LQ&feature=related (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-WLiY2p1LQ&feature=related) btw when it appears to break up, it's because the operator is moving the cursor closer to the center, to take time to find the next letter. (it uses predictive text so that probable next letters are bigger than less probable ones)
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That is actually pretty interesting. Can't imagine anyone trying to send text messages quickly on something like that though.
As far as your half keyboard idea, it would basically be like this, but done in software on a touchscreen?
(https://www.samstores.com/_images/products/nokia-e70-00.jpg)
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Basically, with the rows oriented towards the side (where the fingers are). I can see it working, but it may not be fast. I think we're familiar enough to be able to adapt to that - and we get comfortable typing (not as fast as a real keyboard).
The problem the ipad has to deal with isn't even that typing on it isn't fast (it is if you use your entire body or an appropriate object) - it's that you need (at least) one hand to hold it, otherwise you need to use your body.
But, as is readily known, the ipad isn't designed for replacing computers, it's designed for media consumption. I hope future devices take a more opportunistic approach. Android allows this experimenting, so I'm expecting it.
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I admit that my fingers are probably too fat to type at any reasonable speed with a decent level of accuracy on that tiny keyboard. Hopefully it has some smart auto-correction software which minimises typographical errors. Unfortunately, auto-correction is a double edge sword and can be annoying when one wants to type unusual words or non-verbal text such as a car registration or post code.